High birth rate key to Baltimore’s population profile
Latest U.S. Census findings show what’s behind the city’s population fluctuations since 2010
Above: For teenagers, the city’s birth rate is nearly double the rate of Washington, D.C.
A high birth rate, not the influx of foreign immigrants, has been the chief driver of Baltimore’s very modest population gain between 2010 and 2012, according to U.S. Census reports.
Likewise, the decline in the number of births minus deaths (known as the “natural population growth”) since 2012 resulted in a loss of 313 residents, according to Census Bureau estimates released last week.
Why is this important?
Population growth has become a political issue following Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake’s pledge to end the city’s decades-long population shrinkage. She has made the goal of adding 10,000 families (about 23,000 people) the centerpiece of her administration.
Immigrant Bandwagon
As part of her “Grow Baltimore” strategy, the mayor has pledged to make Baltimore a more friendly place for immigrants.
She is not alone. Many struggling cities, such as Cleveland, St. Louis, Columbus and Dayton, Ohio, are billing themselves as “immigrant friendly.”
Mayor Rawlings-Blake describes her pro-immigration policies on national television. (CNN)
In January, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder announced plans to attract 50,000 immigrants to bankrupt Detroit over the next five years.
Last year, Rawlings-Blake issued an executive order giving “new Americans” full access to city services. The mayor said she is also seeking young entrepreneurs, artists and other members of the so-called “creative class.”
And recently in a “Meet the Press” broadcast, Rawlings-Blake extended an invitation to Arizona’s LGBT community to come to the city, saying “there’s no [culture] war going on in Baltimore.”
Outflow of Residents
So far, however, these efforts haven’t stemmed the departure of existing residents from the city. The latest estimates from the Census Bureau’s “American FactFinder” report underscore the problem.
Among American-born residents, 13,017 more left Baltimore than arrived between April 2010 and July 2013. While the census doesn’t attempt to find out where they’re going, it’s generally assumed that most people settle in the surrounding counties, which have experienced steady growth since 2010.
A net increase of 5,814 foreign immigrants since 2010 somewhat eased the outflow of domestic residents. But compared to other large cities, Baltimore attracts many fewer immigrants from abroad.
Thus the main avenue for population growth since 2010 has been the city’s birthrate.
Baby Boom
The number of women who had a birth in the last 12 months is nearly 50% higher in Baltimore than in neighboring Washington D.C. Among females 15 to 19 years old, Baltimore’s rate is almost double that of Washington – 42 births per 1,000 women versus 22 birth per 1,000.
For women aged 20 to 34, there were 98 births per 1,000 in Baltimore and 49 per 1,000 in Washington. (Among women over 34, the birthrate is higher in D.C. than Baltimore.)
Overall, 29,173 babies were born in Baltimore between April 2010 and July 2013, according to census estimates, exceeding the number of deaths (20,597) by 8,576.
Based on current population trends, the city is headed for a very modest population gain over the 10 years, along the lines of 3,000 – or 0.5% of its current 622,000 residents.
Of course, that could change with major improvements in the local economy or a big spike in jobs – the goals of multiple public, private and philanthropic policies and programs. But nothing like that is forecast by economists in the near future.